What The Polls Are Saying

Deval Patrick is tanking. Anyone surprised?

A majority of Bay State voters say Gov. Deval Patrick has mishandled the state’s economy, according to a poll released this morning.

The Suffolk University/7 News survey of 600 registered voters found that while 37 percent approve of the governor’s management of the local economy, 55 percent disapprove. Of that number, 29 percent strongly disapprove.

“It’s one of many data points that show the majority of voters are unhappy with the governor,” said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, who conducted the poll from Nov. 4-8. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Oddly enough, Patrick leads the three-way contest against Tim Cahill and Christy Mihos, according to the Suffolk University/7 News survey.

Gov. Patrick’s negative marks have inched up to 47 percent since September, when they stood at 45 percent. Nevertheless, he remains predominant (36 percent) in a contest with state Treasurer Tim Cahill (26 percent), running as an Independent, and Republican businessman Christy Mihos (20 percent).

And still interesting to note that Christy Mihos still leads the way in the race for the Republican Primary.

Republican primary voters give Mihos the edge (33 percent) over Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO Charlie Baker (30 percent) in a GOP primary. Baker led Mihos among registered Republicans (33 percent to 28 percent) but Mihos, a former Independent candidate for Governor in 2006, outpolled Baker among Republican-leaning Independents (39 percent to 25 percent).

A general election scenario with Baker in the mix ticks Patrick up to 38 percent; Cahill remains at 26 percent; and Baker gets just 15 percent.

Doesn’t look like Charlie Baker is making much progress if he wants to get the Republican nod.

And what about the Senate special election?

On the race to replace Sen. Edward M. Kennedy’s seat, 56 percent of voters are undecided over which candidate offers the best economic policies.

Attorney General Martha Coakley, a Democrat, topped the six-person race with 13 percent, followed by 11 percent for Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, 10 percent for Celtics [team stats] co-owner and Democrat Stephen Pagliuca and 9 percent for Congressman Michael Capuano (D-Somerville). Democrat and City Year co-founder Alan Khazei and Republican Jack E. Robinson were at zero percent.

More data on the poll from Suffolk University…

On the Democratic side of the Senate race, 44 percent chose Coakley, followed by 17 percent for Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca, 16 percent for U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano, and 3 percent for City Year founder Alan Khazei. Twenty percent were undecided.

“Steve Pagliuca scored the biggest improvement since September,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “He traveled from zero to second place by flooding the air waves with TV ads. However, he still has not secured the most aware Democratic voters who are choosing Coakley and Capuano before him.”

On the Republican side, state Sen. Scott Brown (45 percent) led Jack E. Robinson (7 percent) with 47 percent undecided.

In General Election head-to-head matchups between the Democratic contenders and the GOP’s Brown, only Khazei fell short, with 33 percent of voters choosing Brown and 30 percent Khazei.

Still of lot of indecisiveness going on here. There’s still some time left before going to vote, and a lot can change.

It’s About Time: Charlie Baker To Run For Governor

Now things are starting to get interesting!

Republican Charlie Baker, the well-financed CEO of Harvard Pilgrim, has jumped into a quickly swelling 2010 gubernatorial race only two days after Treasurer Tim Cahill said he decided to switch political parties.

Baker, who is largely unknown to voters throughout the state, will leave Harvard Pilgrim on July 17 and set up a political committee by July 28, according to a source close to Baker.

“I am either the CEO of Harvard Pilgrim – or I’m building a campaign organization. I cannot do both,” Baker said in a statement.

Baker, who worked for former governors William Weld and Paul Cellucci, will face off against Christy Mihos, another self-funded Republican who announced he is running earlier this year, and Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick. Cahill, who admitted his change in parties was a jump closer to running, said he will make his final decison in September.

Baker’s decision had nothing to do with Cahill’s announcement this week, according to the source.

I don’t believe for one second that it has nothing to do with Cahill’s announcement. Nonetheless, time to gear up for a Republican Primary and watch the Democrats shoot themselves in the foot.

UPDATE: Here’s the press release from Harvard Pilgrim: (more…)

Another Three-Way In Massachusetts Race

Treasurer Tim Cahill has jumped ship from the Democrats…a move that will all but guarantee his name on the gubernatorial ballot.

Gov. Deval Patrick says he’s sorry to see the Democrats lose a member but doesn’t have much else to say about Treasurer Timothy Cahill becoming an independent and possible gubernatorial challenger next year.

The governor said today the Democrats have to be about “appealing to and reaching out to everybody.”

Patrick says he’s reserving any further comment until the political season begins — even though he’s holding a pair of re-election fundraisers in Washington on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The two-term treasurer has decided to switch his voter registration from Democrat to unenrolled. That would let him avoid a primary fight against Patrick and proceed directly to the November 2010 general election ballot.

Convenience store magnate Christy Mihos is already seeking the Republican nomination and health care executive Charles Baker is considering a run, as well.

I’m not sure what Tim Cahill is thinking, but I suspect that Team Mihos is pretty happy right about now, and surely this will influence Charlie Baker’s decision about running for governor.

Cahill’s move will only help the Republican Party, much in the same way Christy Mihos running as an independent in 2006 hurt the Republicans (even though Patrick still garnered more than a simple majority of the vote). A primary battle is better than not having one, and if Patrick wasn’t doing enough to destroy the Democrats’ chances of keeping the corner office, Tim Cahill may have just done that. With Deval Patrick (D), Tim Cahill (I) and Christy Mihos (R), the smart money is Mihos. Looking at the poll that came out last week, there hasn’t been a better time to be a Republican than right now. Patrick will take the few remaining loyals and the straight party line voters, Cahill might take the Democrats who are fed up with Patrick, leaving the rest, a majority, to Mihos. If Baker decides to run, and wins the primary, he too should earn a victory.

Thank you, Tim Cahill.

Deval Throws His Hat In The Ring

He’s going to run again…. as promised.

Gov. Deval Patrick confirmed today he will run again for the Corner Office as he headed to a fund-raiser in New York, adding he has time to catch up to Treasurer Tim Cahill’s massive $3 million war chest.

“There’s a lot of time … to spend all that,” Patrick said when asked about competing with Cahill’s fund raising. “We’re going to be raising it and getting ready and building the base and all the rest of it.”

Patrick currently has $431,000 in his campaign chest, according to Office of Campaign and Political Finance records.

Patrick, who is flying to New York this afternoon, said the trip serves a dual purpose.

“I’m getting an award from an organization and we organized the fund-raiser so we’d make one trip and not two,” Patrick said. “I have some supporters down there who wanted to be helpful, so I’m in and out.”

When asked how he’ll retain the trust of the public, Patrick said he’d continue to bring change to areas such as auto insurance and replacing some police details with civilian flaggers on road construction sites.

“My job is to continue to do the job and not just think about how to hold onto it, and that’s a part of it I understand. But I’m not trying to make a career out of politics. I’m just trying to move the agenda,” Patrick said.

Can Governor Patrick hold on? Will Cahill embarrass the governor? Is the climate right for Christy Mihos to swoop in?