A majority of Bay State voters say Gov. Deval Patrick has mishandled the state’s economy, according to a poll released this morning.

The Suffolk University/7 News survey of 600 registered voters found that while 37 percent approve of the governor’s management of the local economy, 55 percent disapprove. Of that number, 29 percent strongly disapprove.

“It’s one of many data points that show the majority of voters are unhappy with the governor,” said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, who conducted the poll from Nov. 4-8. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Oddly enough, Patrick leads the three-way contest against Tim Cahill and Christy Mihos, according to the Suffolk University/7 News survey.

Gov. Patrick’s negative marks have inched up to 47 percent since September, when they stood at 45 percent. Nevertheless, he remains predominant (36 percent) in a contest with state Treasurer Tim Cahill (26 percent), running as an Independent, and Republican businessman Christy Mihos (20 percent).

And still interesting to note that Christy Mihos still leads the way in the race for the Republican Primary.

Republican primary voters give Mihos the edge (33 percent) over Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO Charlie Baker (30 percent) in a GOP primary. Baker led Mihos among registered Republicans (33 percent to 28 percent) but Mihos, a former Independent candidate for Governor in 2006, outpolled Baker among Republican-leaning Independents (39 percent to 25 percent).

A general election scenario with Baker in the mix ticks Patrick up to 38 percent; Cahill remains at 26 percent; and Baker gets just 15 percent.

Doesn’t look like Charlie Baker is making much progress if he wants to get the Republican nod.

And what about the Senate special election?

On the race to replace Sen. Edward M. Kennedy’s seat, 56 percent of voters are undecided over which candidate offers the best economic policies.

Attorney General Martha Coakley, a Democrat, topped the six-person race with 13 percent, followed by 11 percent for Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, 10 percent for Celtics [team stats] co-owner and Democrat Stephen Pagliuca and 9 percent for Congressman Michael Capuano (D-Somerville). Democrat and City Year co-founder Alan Khazei and Republican Jack E. Robinson were at zero percent.

More data on the poll from Suffolk University…

On the Democratic side of the Senate race, 44 percent chose Coakley, followed by 17 percent for Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca, 16 percent for U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano, and 3 percent for City Year founder Alan Khazei. Twenty percent were undecided.

“Steve Pagliuca scored the biggest improvement since September,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “He traveled from zero to second place by flooding the air waves with TV ads. However, he still has not secured the most aware Democratic voters who are choosing Coakley and Capuano before him.”

On the Republican side, state Sen. Scott Brown (45 percent) led Jack E. Robinson (7 percent) with 47 percent undecided.

In General Election head-to-head matchups between the Democratic contenders and the GOP’s Brown, only Khazei fell short, with 33 percent of voters choosing Brown and 30 percent Khazei.

Still of lot of indecisiveness going on here. There’s still some time left before going to vote, and a lot can change.

State Treasurer Timothy P. Cahill plans to announce today that he will challenge Governor Deval Patrick as an independent candidate in next year’s governor’s race, according to several people aware of his plans.

Cahill, who dropped out of the Democratic Party this summer after becoming disillusioned with its direction, has scheduled a late-morning news conference to make his decision public. He intends to kick off the campaign at a fund-raiser at the Adams Inn in Quincy, his hometown.

Cahill will compete against Republicans Charles D. Baker, a former executive at Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, and possibly convenience store magnate Christy Mihos. Mihos is seriously considering switching gears to run for the Senate seat of Edward M. Kennedy, according to an adviser.

Cahill, a longtime Democrat who has served as treasurer since 2003, would not comment on his plans yesterday.

But he has told supporters he feels frustrated that the state cannot function within its budget and continually asks taxpayers for more money.

With his experience at the local, county, and state levels, Cahill believes, he is the most qualified to run the state at a time of financial difficulty, supporters said.

UPDATE: Please be sure to join us this Wednesday night at 8:00pm EST on The Notes on Blog Talk Radio; our guest will be Frank Conte of the Beacon Hill Institute. Plus, more from Boston Magazine and the Herald.

SECOND UPDATE: More from WBUR, Boston Globe, AP and Joan Vennochi.

This column is for everyone standing in those long lines at the Registry of Motor Vehicles branch offices this morning.

Now that Gov. Deval Patrick has shuttered so many branches, the lines at the remaining offices are out the door again, as in the bad old pre-Grabauskas days.

But look on the bright side. The Friends of Deval are doing just fine, thank you very much.

Come on down, Eddie Jenkins, just hired July 6 as the RMV’s new director of enforcement services for $80,000 a year. He’s the first RMV employee to have this job title, although there used to be a “deputy registrar for enforcement services,” and she was making $120,000 a year.

Her job went unfilled for more than a year, but then came Eddie. The job needed a man, and the man needed a job.

You may remember Jenkins, a lawyer from Roxbury, for his unsuccessful runs for political office in Boston. Before he got picked up on waivers by the RMV last month he was the chairman of the state Alcoholic Beverages Control Commission. His name was dropped by ex-Sen. Dianne Wilkerson when she was soliciting bribes from a wired-up businessman for a city liquor license.

On one memorable day last fall, feds arrived at Jenkins’ ABCC office with a subpoena, only to discover that State Treasurer Tim Cahill already had placed him on paid administrative leave over another problem – what the papers called a “possible diversion of state reimbursement money.”

Jenkins was cleared of any wrongdoing in the first case – the Treasury had placed the money into his account directly, rather than paying a law firm he’d been using in a State Ethics Commission probe in which he was, yes, cleared. And Jenkins is clean on the Wilkerson case, although he was one of her campaign donors.

He resigned from his $110,703.28-a-year ABCC job May 8. In other words, he’s taking a big pay cut at the RMV, but any port in a storm, as they say. According to a dime-dropper, the RMV “was told it was a ‘must-hire’ from the governor.”

Asked about that charge, an RMV spokeswoman said, “I’m not aware of that.”

UPDATE: More from the Boston Business Journal.

SECOND UPDATE: More from the Globe and Herald.

THIRD UPDATE: More from Holly Robichaud and the AP.

Republican Charlie Baker kicked off his gubernatorial campaign today with an online video to supporters.

Charlie Baker: “When it comes to bringing change – I am two things: fearless and determined. And as your Governor, I will be both.”

In his first video to supporters, found on his new website, Massachusetts republican Charlie Baker makes his pitch for the state’s top job saying he has twice engineered turnarounds.

First as finance chief in the Weld and Carlucci administrations and second, when – as the CEO of Harvard Pilgrim – he pulled the health care company back from near bankruptcy.

So has his website… www.charliebaker2010.com

We now officially have a Republican Primary… Baker joins the primary battle with Christy Mihos, vying for the Republican nod to face Democrat Deval Patrick and presumably independent candidate Tim Cahill.

Republican Charlie Baker, the well-financed CEO of Harvard Pilgrim, has jumped into a quickly swelling 2010 gubernatorial race only two days after Treasurer Timothy Cahill said he decided to switch political parties.

Baker, who is largely unknown to voters throughout the state, will leave Harvard Pilgrim on July 17 and set up a political committee by July 28, according to a source close to Baker.

He vowed to focus on jobs and the economy if elected.

“The biggest thing you have to do to grow jobs is to live within your means,” Baker said today during a press conference at Babson College in Wellesley. “The opportunity to do the most reform is usually in a down market and down economy and that’s what we have.”

When asked if he’ll run as a socially liberal Weld Republican, he replied: “Yah.”

Baker also said too many young people are leaving the state and “those people represent our future.”

“Frankly,” he added, “it’s a pretty dark picture and I don’t think we’re doing the kinds of things we need to do to make the picture better.”

Earlier in the day, Baker said it was time for him to make a choice.

“I am either the CEO of Harvard Pilgrim – or I’m building a campaign organization. I cannot do both,” Baker said in a statement.

On WRKO-AM Wednesday evening, Boston talk-radio star Howie Carr expressed his concern that a three-way race between Baker, Independent Tim Cahill and Democrat Deval Patrick could result in a second Patrick term (God help us). Maybe. Maybe not.

UPDATE: More from NECN, WBUR, the AP, Jon Keller, Jim Geraghty and David Bernstein.

SECOND UPDATE: More from the Herald, Wayne Woodlief, Howie Carr and Margery Eagan.

THIRD UPDATE: From the AP, Lynn Daily Item, Holly Robichaud, Joan Vennochi, the Globe, the Bedford Minuteman and the Boston Herald.

Republican Charlie Baker, the well-financed CEO of Harvard Pilgrim, has jumped into a quickly swelling 2010 gubernatorial race only two days after Treasurer Tim Cahill said he decided to switch political parties.

Baker, who is largely unknown to voters throughout the state, will leave Harvard Pilgrim on July 17 and set up a political committee by July 28, according to a source close to Baker.

“I am either the CEO of Harvard Pilgrim – or I’m building a campaign organization. I cannot do both,” Baker said in a statement.

Baker, who worked for former governors William Weld and Paul Cellucci, will face off against Christy Mihos, another self-funded Republican who announced he is running earlier this year, and Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick. Cahill, who admitted his change in parties was a jump closer to running, said he will make his final decison in September.

Baker’s decision had nothing to do with Cahill’s announcement this week, according to the source.

I don’t believe for one second that it has nothing to do with Cahill’s announcement. Nonetheless, time to gear up for a Republican Primary and watch the Democrats shoot themselves in the foot.

UPDATE: Here’s the press release from Harvard Pilgrim:

CHARLES D. BAKER TO LEAVE AS CEO OF HARVARD PILGRIM HEALTH CARE
BRUCE BULLEN NAMED AS INTERIM CEO OF HEALTH PLAN

(Wellesley) Harvard Pilgrim Health Care announced today that President and Chief Executive Officer Charles D. Baker will leave the company to put together a statewide electoral campaign. Bruce Bullen, the current Chief Operating Officer, was named the Interim CEO by the Harvard Pilgrim Board of Directors.

“For the past ten years, I’ve had the unique and wonderful opportunity to serve as the CEO of this outstanding organization. Over that period of time, Harvard Pilgrim has had a pretty great ride: six straight years of membership growth and nine years of positive financial performance under very difficult and very competitive circumstances,” said Charles D. Baker. “Harvard Pilgrim is in great shape – with a great team, a great strategy and a great future. Leaving the company is not an easy decision for me but there is no middle ground. I am either the CEO of Harvard Pilgrim – or I’m building a campaign organization. I cannot do both.”

Chairman of the Harvard Pilgrim Board of Directors, Barry Shermin, praised Baker for his leadership of the company stating, “Charlie Baker is an extraordinary leader whose accomplishments during his tenure at Harvard Pilgrim are unparalleled. Charlie and his leadership team have put us in a position of great strength today and we will continue to be the best health plan around.”

Baker will remain at Harvard Pilgrim through July 17th and Bullen will become Interim CEO at that time. Before becoming Harvard Pilgrim’s COO ten years ago, Bullen was the Commissioner of the Division of Medical Assistance, an independent state agency, responsible for the MassHealth (Medicaid) program. Bullen holds a Master’s Degree in Public Administration from the John F. Kennedy School at Harvard University and an undergraduate degree from Williams College.

“Charlie and I have put together a strong management team and a sound business plan. Our customers, provider partners and members will continue to receive the same great service they have received for the past ten years,” said Bruce Bullen. “Harvard Pilgrim’s future is bright. We just added 25,000 more members this month bringing our current membership to more than 1,080,000. Our membership gain tells us that the market is responding to our strategy of offering employers in Massachusetts, Maine and New Hampshire a variety of quality benefit options delivered with top-notch service.”

Harvard Pilgrim has been named the best plan in the country for four straight years by the U.S. News & World Report’s annual national survey of health plan performance and was recently identified as having the highest member satisfaction among commercial health plans in the New England Region in the J.D. Power and Associates 2009 National Health Insurance Plan Study*.

For the seventh year in a row, The Boston Business Journal named Harvard Pilgrim one of the Best Places to Work in Massachusetts in its annual regional awards program. The honor recognizes the company’s achievements in creating a positive work environment that attracts and retains employees through a combination of employee satisfaction, working conditions and company culture.

Harvard Pilgrim is a not-for-profit health plan that provides a variety of health benefit options and funding arrangements to more than one million members in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine. For more information, please visit www.harvardpilgrim.org.

-30-

Gov. Deval Patrick says he’s sorry to see the Democrats lose a member but doesn’t have much else to say about Treasurer Timothy Cahill becoming an independent and possible gubernatorial challenger next year.

The governor said today the Democrats have to be about “appealing to and reaching out to everybody.”

Patrick says he’s reserving any further comment until the political season begins — even though he’s holding a pair of re-election fundraisers in Washington on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The two-term treasurer has decided to switch his voter registration from Democrat to unenrolled. That would let him avoid a primary fight against Patrick and proceed directly to the November 2010 general election ballot.

Convenience store magnate Christy Mihos is already seeking the Republican nomination and health care executive Charles Baker is considering a run, as well.

I’m not sure what Tim Cahill is thinking, but I suspect that Team Mihos is pretty happy right about now, and surely this will influence Charlie Baker’s decision about running for governor.

Cahill’s move will only help the Republican Party, much in the same way Christy Mihos running as an independent in 2006 hurt the Republicans (even though Patrick still garnered more than a simple majority of the vote). A primary battle is better than not having one, and if Patrick wasn’t doing enough to destroy the Democrats’ chances of keeping the corner office, Tim Cahill may have just done that. With Deval Patrick (D), Tim Cahill (I) and Christy Mihos (R), the smart money is Mihos. Looking at the poll that came out last week, there hasn’t been a better time to be a Republican than right now. Patrick will take the few remaining loyals and the straight party line voters, Cahill might take the Democrats who are fed up with Patrick, leaving the rest, a majority, to Mihos. If Baker decides to run, and wins the primary, he too should earn a victory.

Thank you, Tim Cahill.

Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick recently signed the state’s FY2010 budget. The budget contained roughly $1 billion dollar in additional taxes, including a 25% increase in the sales tax rate. The increase (from 5% to 6.25%), was implemented in part to offset a previously planned increase in Massachusetts Turnpike tolls, and is slated to take effect on August 1.

Yet less than one full week into the new fiscal season, the governor is hinting that even more taxes may be in the offing. Massachusetts currently imposes a flat tax rate of 5.3% on individuals, but Patrick indicated a desire to see this change in favor of a graduated scheme.

Someone needs to save us from this madness. Christy Mihos. Charlie Baker. Tim Cahill. Someone. Anyone!

UPDATE: From Red Mass Group and Red State.

SECOND UPDATE: More from the Globe, WBUR, Holly Robichaud, Howie Carr and the Boston Herald.

Shhhhh – keep it under your hat, because nobody’s supposed to know. But Deval Patrick grabbed an extra $382,500 last year on top of his governor’s salary of $140,535.

And Deval didn’t even report the mega-score on his annual sworn statement of financial interests to the State Ethics Commission. Surely the governor plans to close such unconscionable loopholes in his “landmark” ethics reform package.

Deval pocketed a $450,000 book advance (minus a 15 percent cut to his literary agent). But nothing was reported because a book advance apparently isn’t covered under “employment and other associations with businesses.”

Actually, Deval’s advance is $1.35 million, pretty damn good for a first-time author who’s never been on “American Idol” or tested positive for steroids. Deval will get another third of the money – $450,000 – when his (or some ghostwriter’s) manuscript is accepted, and a final $450,000 when it’s published.

So the governor continues his moonlighting – or should I say moonbatlighting. Working title: “Up From Texaco.”

No doubt he’ll be working hard on the tome this weekend out at his mansion in Richmond, after he delivers his not-at-all-anticipated speech to the Democratic state convention in Springfield.

Attending today’s dreary convention is proof that Deval is running for re-election. More evidence: the fact that his operatives, when they’re not testifying before the Sal DiMasi grand jury, continue trying to put a rocket in the pocket of Tim Cahill.

UPDATE: More from Holly Robichaud, WBZ, Wendy Murphy, CNN, the Herald and the Globe.

SECOND UPDATE: More from the Herald and Globe.

THIRD UPDATE: More from Holly Robichaud, the Lawrence Eagle-Tribune, the Herald and Globe.

Gov. Deval Patrick confirmed today he will run again for the Corner Office as he headed to a fund-raiser in New York, adding he has time to catch up to Treasurer Tim Cahill’s massive $3 million war chest.

“There’s a lot of time … to spend all that,” Patrick said when asked about competing with Cahill’s fund raising. “We’re going to be raising it and getting ready and building the base and all the rest of it.”

Patrick currently has $431,000 in his campaign chest, according to Office of Campaign and Political Finance records.

Patrick, who is flying to New York this afternoon, said the trip serves a dual purpose.

“I’m getting an award from an organization and we organized the fund-raiser so we’d make one trip and not two,” Patrick said. “I have some supporters down there who wanted to be helpful, so I’m in and out.”

When asked how he’ll retain the trust of the public, Patrick said he’d continue to bring change to areas such as auto insurance and replacing some police details with civilian flaggers on road construction sites.

“My job is to continue to do the job and not just think about how to hold onto it, and that’s a part of it I understand. But I’m not trying to make a career out of politics. I’m just trying to move the agenda,” Patrick said.

Can Governor Patrick hold on? Will Cahill embarrass the governor? Is the climate right for Christy Mihos to swoop in?