What The Polls Are Saying

Deval Patrick is tanking. Anyone surprised?

A majority of Bay State voters say Gov. Deval Patrick has mishandled the state’s economy, according to a poll released this morning.

The Suffolk University/7 News survey of 600 registered voters found that while 37 percent approve of the governor’s management of the local economy, 55 percent disapprove. Of that number, 29 percent strongly disapprove.

“It’s one of many data points that show the majority of voters are unhappy with the governor,” said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, who conducted the poll from Nov. 4-8. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Oddly enough, Patrick leads the three-way contest against Tim Cahill and Christy Mihos, according to the Suffolk University/7 News survey.

Gov. Patrick’s negative marks have inched up to 47 percent since September, when they stood at 45 percent. Nevertheless, he remains predominant (36 percent) in a contest with state Treasurer Tim Cahill (26 percent), running as an Independent, and Republican businessman Christy Mihos (20 percent).

And still interesting to note that Christy Mihos still leads the way in the race for the Republican Primary.

Republican primary voters give Mihos the edge (33 percent) over Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO Charlie Baker (30 percent) in a GOP primary. Baker led Mihos among registered Republicans (33 percent to 28 percent) but Mihos, a former Independent candidate for Governor in 2006, outpolled Baker among Republican-leaning Independents (39 percent to 25 percent).

A general election scenario with Baker in the mix ticks Patrick up to 38 percent; Cahill remains at 26 percent; and Baker gets just 15 percent.

Doesn’t look like Charlie Baker is making much progress if he wants to get the Republican nod.

And what about the Senate special election?

On the race to replace Sen. Edward M. Kennedy’s seat, 56 percent of voters are undecided over which candidate offers the best economic policies.

Attorney General Martha Coakley, a Democrat, topped the six-person race with 13 percent, followed by 11 percent for Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, 10 percent for Celtics [team stats] co-owner and Democrat Stephen Pagliuca and 9 percent for Congressman Michael Capuano (D-Somerville). Democrat and City Year co-founder Alan Khazei and Republican Jack E. Robinson were at zero percent.

More data on the poll from Suffolk University…

On the Democratic side of the Senate race, 44 percent chose Coakley, followed by 17 percent for Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca, 16 percent for U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano, and 3 percent for City Year founder Alan Khazei. Twenty percent were undecided.

“Steve Pagliuca scored the biggest improvement since September,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “He traveled from zero to second place by flooding the air waves with TV ads. However, he still has not secured the most aware Democratic voters who are choosing Coakley and Capuano before him.”

On the Republican side, state Sen. Scott Brown (45 percent) led Jack E. Robinson (7 percent) with 47 percent undecided.

In General Election head-to-head matchups between the Democratic contenders and the GOP’s Brown, only Khazei fell short, with 33 percent of voters choosing Brown and 30 percent Khazei.

Still of lot of indecisiveness going on here. There’s still some time left before going to vote, and a lot can change.

Get Up, Stand Up

Will Tim Cahill be the Bay State’s Great Independent Hope?

State Treasurer Timothy P. Cahill plans to announce today that he will challenge Governor Deval Patrick as an independent candidate in next year’s governor’s race, according to several people aware of his plans.

Cahill, who dropped out of the Democratic Party this summer after becoming disillusioned with its direction, has scheduled a late-morning news conference to make his decision public. He intends to kick off the campaign at a fund-raiser at the Adams Inn in Quincy, his hometown.

Cahill will compete against Republicans Charles D. Baker, a former executive at Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, and possibly convenience store magnate Christy Mihos. Mihos is seriously considering switching gears to run for the Senate seat of Edward M. Kennedy, according to an adviser.

Cahill, a longtime Democrat who has served as treasurer since 2003, would not comment on his plans yesterday.

But he has told supporters he feels frustrated that the state cannot function within its budget and continually asks taxpayers for more money.

With his experience at the local, county, and state levels, Cahill believes, he is the most qualified to run the state at a time of financial difficulty, supporters said.

UPDATE: Please be sure to join us this Wednesday night at 8:00pm EST on The Notes on Blog Talk Radio; our guest will be Frank Conte of the Beacon Hill Institute. Plus, more from Boston Magazine and the Herald.

SECOND UPDATE: More from WBUR, Boston Globe, AP and Joan Vennochi.

Park the Carr

Where would the Commonwealth be without Howie Carr exposing the machinations of Gov. Patrick?

This column is for everyone standing in those long lines at the Registry of Motor Vehicles branch offices this morning.

Now that Gov. Deval Patrick has shuttered so many branches, the lines at the remaining offices are out the door again, as in the bad old pre-Grabauskas days.

But look on the bright side. The Friends of Deval are doing just fine, thank you very much.

Come on down, Eddie Jenkins, just hired July 6 as the RMV’s new director of enforcement services for $80,000 a year. He’s the first RMV employee to have this job title, although there used to be a “deputy registrar for enforcement services,” and she was making $120,000 a year.

Her job went unfilled for more than a year, but then came Eddie. The job needed a man, and the man needed a job.

You may remember Jenkins, a lawyer from Roxbury, for his unsuccessful runs for political office in Boston. Before he got picked up on waivers by the RMV last month he was the chairman of the state Alcoholic Beverages Control Commission. His name was dropped by ex-Sen. Dianne Wilkerson when she was soliciting bribes from a wired-up businessman for a city liquor license.

On one memorable day last fall, feds arrived at Jenkins’ ABCC office with a subpoena, only to discover that State Treasurer Tim Cahill already had placed him on paid administrative leave over another problem – what the papers called a “possible diversion of state reimbursement money.”

Jenkins was cleared of any wrongdoing in the first case – the Treasury had placed the money into his account directly, rather than paying a law firm he’d been using in a State Ethics Commission probe in which he was, yes, cleared. And Jenkins is clean on the Wilkerson case, although he was one of her campaign donors.

He resigned from his $110,703.28-a-year ABCC job May 8. In other words, he’s taking a big pay cut at the RMV, but any port in a storm, as they say. According to a dime-dropper, the RMV “was told it was a ‘must-hire’ from the governor.”

Asked about that charge, an RMV spokeswoman said, “I’m not aware of that.”

UPDATE: More from the Boston Business Journal.

SECOND UPDATE: More from the Globe and Herald.

THIRD UPDATE: More from Holly Robichaud and the AP.

Baker For Governor Goes Live

With the filing of campaign finance papers, Charlie Baker’s campaign governor has gone live.

Republican Charlie Baker kicked off his gubernatorial campaign today with an online video to supporters.

Charlie Baker: “When it comes to bringing change – I am two things: fearless and determined. And as your Governor, I will be both.”

In his first video to supporters, found on his new website, Massachusetts republican Charlie Baker makes his pitch for the state’s top job saying he has twice engineered turnarounds.

First as finance chief in the Weld and Carlucci administrations and second, when – as the CEO of Harvard Pilgrim – he pulled the health care company back from near bankruptcy.

So has his website… www.charliebaker2010.com

We now officially have a Republican Primary… Baker joins the primary battle with Christy Mihos, vying for the Republican nod to face Democrat Deval Patrick and presumably independent candidate Tim Cahill.

The Good Thing

Will Charlie Baker return some semblance of two-party balance to Massachusetts?

Republican Charlie Baker, the well-financed CEO of Harvard Pilgrim, has jumped into a quickly swelling 2010 gubernatorial race only two days after Treasurer Timothy Cahill said he decided to switch political parties.

Baker, who is largely unknown to voters throughout the state, will leave Harvard Pilgrim on July 17 and set up a political committee by July 28, according to a source close to Baker.

He vowed to focus on jobs and the economy if elected.

“The biggest thing you have to do to grow jobs is to live within your means,” Baker said today during a press conference at Babson College in Wellesley. “The opportunity to do the most reform is usually in a down market and down economy and that’s what we have.”

When asked if he’ll run as a socially liberal Weld Republican, he replied: “Yah.”

Baker also said too many young people are leaving the state and “those people represent our future.”

“Frankly,” he added, “it’s a pretty dark picture and I don’t think we’re doing the kinds of things we need to do to make the picture better.”

Earlier in the day, Baker said it was time for him to make a choice.

“I am either the CEO of Harvard Pilgrim – or I’m building a campaign organization. I cannot do both,” Baker said in a statement.

On WRKO-AM Wednesday evening, Boston talk-radio star Howie Carr expressed his concern that a three-way race between Baker, Independent Tim Cahill and Democrat Deval Patrick could result in a second Patrick term (God help us). Maybe. Maybe not.

UPDATE: More from NECN, WBUR, the AP, Jon Keller, Jim Geraghty and David Bernstein.

SECOND UPDATE: More from the Herald, Wayne Woodlief, Howie Carr and Margery Eagan.

THIRD UPDATE: From the AP, Lynn Daily Item, Holly Robichaud, Joan Vennochi, the Globe, the Bedford Minuteman and the Boston Herald.