New Suffolk Poll has Scott Brown Up By Four Points

We’re gonna win this one folks!

Riding a wave of opposition to Democratic health-care reform, GOP upstart Scott Brown is leading in the U.S. Senate race, raising the odds of a historic upset that would reverberate all the way to the White House, a new poll shows.

Although Brown’s 4-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley is within the Suffolk University/7News survey’s margin of error, the underdog’s position at the top of the results stunned even pollster David Paleologos.

“It’s a Brown-out,” said Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “It’s a massive change in the political landscape.”

The poll shows Brown, a state senator from Wrentham, besting Coakley, the state’s attorney general, by 50 percent to 46 percent, the first major survey to show Brown in the lead. Unenrolled long-shot Joseph L. Kennedy, an information technology executive with no relation to the famous family, gets 3 percent of the vote. Only 1 percent of voters were undecided.

Paleologos said bellweather models show high numbers of independent voters turning out on election day, which benefits Brown, who has 65 percent of that bloc compared to Coakley’s 30 percent. Kennedy earns just 3 percent of the independent vote, and 1 percent are undecided.

Given the 4.4-point margin of error, the poll shows Coakley could win the race, Paleologos said. But if Brown’s momentum holds, he is poised to succeed the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy – and to halt health-care reform, the issue the late senator dubbed “the cause of my life.”

For more on the poll, click here …and here.

What, Me Worry?

Everything’s just fine in Deval World!

Governor Deval Patrick dismissed poll results showing most voters disapprove of his handling of the job.

“We don’t govern by polls,” Patrick said following a groundbreaking event in Lowell yesterday. “We’re focused on getting the job done right now and governing for the long term.”

But considering the results of yesterday’s Suffolk University/7 News survey, there may not be a second term. The poll of 600 registered voters found that 51 percent disapprove of his performance and 55 percent say someone else deserves a turn at the top job.

Patrick expressed frustration over a poll question that revealed a majority of respondents believe he has mishandled the state’s economy.

UPDATE: More from the Herald, the Globe, Holly Robichaud and Howie Carr.

SECOND UPDATE: More from Red Mass Group, AP and the New York Observer.

THIRD UPDATE: From Red Mass Group.

What The Polls Are Saying

Deval Patrick is tanking. Anyone surprised?

A majority of Bay State voters say Gov. Deval Patrick has mishandled the state’s economy, according to a poll released this morning.

The Suffolk University/7 News survey of 600 registered voters found that while 37 percent approve of the governor’s management of the local economy, 55 percent disapprove. Of that number, 29 percent strongly disapprove.

“It’s one of many data points that show the majority of voters are unhappy with the governor,” said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, who conducted the poll from Nov. 4-8. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Oddly enough, Patrick leads the three-way contest against Tim Cahill and Christy Mihos, according to the Suffolk University/7 News survey.

Gov. Patrick’s negative marks have inched up to 47 percent since September, when they stood at 45 percent. Nevertheless, he remains predominant (36 percent) in a contest with state Treasurer Tim Cahill (26 percent), running as an Independent, and Republican businessman Christy Mihos (20 percent).

And still interesting to note that Christy Mihos still leads the way in the race for the Republican Primary.

Republican primary voters give Mihos the edge (33 percent) over Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO Charlie Baker (30 percent) in a GOP primary. Baker led Mihos among registered Republicans (33 percent to 28 percent) but Mihos, a former Independent candidate for Governor in 2006, outpolled Baker among Republican-leaning Independents (39 percent to 25 percent).

A general election scenario with Baker in the mix ticks Patrick up to 38 percent; Cahill remains at 26 percent; and Baker gets just 15 percent.

Doesn’t look like Charlie Baker is making much progress if he wants to get the Republican nod.

And what about the Senate special election?

On the race to replace Sen. Edward M. Kennedy’s seat, 56 percent of voters are undecided over which candidate offers the best economic policies.

Attorney General Martha Coakley, a Democrat, topped the six-person race with 13 percent, followed by 11 percent for Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, 10 percent for Celtics [team stats] co-owner and Democrat Stephen Pagliuca and 9 percent for Congressman Michael Capuano (D-Somerville). Democrat and City Year co-founder Alan Khazei and Republican Jack E. Robinson were at zero percent.

More data on the poll from Suffolk University…

On the Democratic side of the Senate race, 44 percent chose Coakley, followed by 17 percent for Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca, 16 percent for U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano, and 3 percent for City Year founder Alan Khazei. Twenty percent were undecided.

“Steve Pagliuca scored the biggest improvement since September,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “He traveled from zero to second place by flooding the air waves with TV ads. However, he still has not secured the most aware Democratic voters who are choosing Coakley and Capuano before him.”

On the Republican side, state Sen. Scott Brown (45 percent) led Jack E. Robinson (7 percent) with 47 percent undecided.

In General Election head-to-head matchups between the Democratic contenders and the GOP’s Brown, only Khazei fell short, with 33 percent of voters choosing Brown and 30 percent Khazei.

Still of lot of indecisiveness going on here. There’s still some time left before going to vote, and a lot can change.

Just So Much Hot Air

Michelle Malkin’s site gets it right!

On the executive branch front, Pres. Obama avoided talking about healthcare reform on his trip to Massachusetts. Bay Staters still like their flavor of reform, similar in most respects to the basic elements of ObamaCare — but costs have risen at double the national rate, and the inevitable rationing has yet to bite them. Pres. Obama was in Massachusetts to raise money for Gov. Deval Patrick, a/k/a David Axelrod’s beta version of Obama. The fundraiser was half-empty, as Obama acknowledged that Partick will be in a “tough race.” How tough? The most recent Suffolk University/7News poll shows only 29% think Patrick deserves to be re-elected.

UPDATE: More from the Herald and the AP.

SECOND UPDATE: From the Boston Herald, Rasmussen Reports, Michael Graham and Steven Syre.

Climate Change

Will the Bay State economy improve next year?

After examining the state’s slide into a recession last
year and the emerging prospects for recovery taking root this year,
The Beacon Hill Institute at Suffolk University today released its
revised forecast of Massachusetts state tax revenues for fiscal year
(FY) 2010 and a new forecast for FY2011.

The Institute’s forecasts for state tax revenues are:
• For FY 2010 (ending June 30, 2010): $18.545 billion, a 1.6%
increase over FY2009; and
• For FY 2011 (ending June 30, 2011): $19.211 billion, a 3.6%
increase over FY 2010.

David G. Tuerck, Executive Director of the Beacon Hill Institute (BHI)
and Chairman of the Department of Economics at Suffolk University,
and Paul Bachman, BHI Director of Research, presented the forecast
in testimony before the legislature’s Updated Consensus Revenue
Hearing. The hearing took place on the heels of falling September tax
revenues which came in $243 million below estimates used for the
current budget.

“With the national economy in recession, Massachusetts has not been
spared a dramatic loss in tax revenues,” said Tuerck. “Job losses will translate into continued lower personal income tax revenue for the Commonwealth in FY 2010,” said Tuerck in his testimony. “However, the evidence from recent data, combined with the recently enacted
sales tax increase, suggest that overall revenues will increase slightly in FY 2010.”

UPDATE: More from the AP and Reuters.

SECOND UPDATE: From the American Spectator and Globe.

THIRD UPDATE: More from the New York Post, Boston Herald and Joan Vennochi.