New Suffolk Poll has Scott Brown Up By Four Points

We’re gonna win this one folks!

Riding a wave of opposition to Democratic health-care reform, GOP upstart Scott Brown is leading in the U.S. Senate race, raising the odds of a historic upset that would reverberate all the way to the White House, a new poll shows.

Although Brown’s 4-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley is within the Suffolk University/7News survey’s margin of error, the underdog’s position at the top of the results stunned even pollster David Paleologos.

“It’s a Brown-out,” said Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “It’s a massive change in the political landscape.”

The poll shows Brown, a state senator from Wrentham, besting Coakley, the state’s attorney general, by 50 percent to 46 percent, the first major survey to show Brown in the lead. Unenrolled long-shot Joseph L. Kennedy, an information technology executive with no relation to the famous family, gets 3 percent of the vote. Only 1 percent of voters were undecided.

Paleologos said bellweather models show high numbers of independent voters turning out on election day, which benefits Brown, who has 65 percent of that bloc compared to Coakley’s 30 percent. Kennedy earns just 3 percent of the independent vote, and 1 percent are undecided.

Given the 4.4-point margin of error, the poll shows Coakley could win the race, Paleologos said. But if Brown’s momentum holds, he is poised to succeed the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy – and to halt health-care reform, the issue the late senator dubbed “the cause of my life.”

For more on the poll, click here …and here.

What The Polls Are Saying

Deval Patrick is tanking. Anyone surprised?

A majority of Bay State voters say Gov. Deval Patrick has mishandled the state’s economy, according to a poll released this morning.

The Suffolk University/7 News survey of 600 registered voters found that while 37 percent approve of the governor’s management of the local economy, 55 percent disapprove. Of that number, 29 percent strongly disapprove.

“It’s one of many data points that show the majority of voters are unhappy with the governor,” said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, who conducted the poll from Nov. 4-8. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Oddly enough, Patrick leads the three-way contest against Tim Cahill and Christy Mihos, according to the Suffolk University/7 News survey.

Gov. Patrick’s negative marks have inched up to 47 percent since September, when they stood at 45 percent. Nevertheless, he remains predominant (36 percent) in a contest with state Treasurer Tim Cahill (26 percent), running as an Independent, and Republican businessman Christy Mihos (20 percent).

And still interesting to note that Christy Mihos still leads the way in the race for the Republican Primary.

Republican primary voters give Mihos the edge (33 percent) over Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO Charlie Baker (30 percent) in a GOP primary. Baker led Mihos among registered Republicans (33 percent to 28 percent) but Mihos, a former Independent candidate for Governor in 2006, outpolled Baker among Republican-leaning Independents (39 percent to 25 percent).

A general election scenario with Baker in the mix ticks Patrick up to 38 percent; Cahill remains at 26 percent; and Baker gets just 15 percent.

Doesn’t look like Charlie Baker is making much progress if he wants to get the Republican nod.

And what about the Senate special election?

On the race to replace Sen. Edward M. Kennedy’s seat, 56 percent of voters are undecided over which candidate offers the best economic policies.

Attorney General Martha Coakley, a Democrat, topped the six-person race with 13 percent, followed by 11 percent for Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, 10 percent for Celtics [team stats] co-owner and Democrat Stephen Pagliuca and 9 percent for Congressman Michael Capuano (D-Somerville). Democrat and City Year co-founder Alan Khazei and Republican Jack E. Robinson were at zero percent.

More data on the poll from Suffolk University…

On the Democratic side of the Senate race, 44 percent chose Coakley, followed by 17 percent for Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca, 16 percent for U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano, and 3 percent for City Year founder Alan Khazei. Twenty percent were undecided.

“Steve Pagliuca scored the biggest improvement since September,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “He traveled from zero to second place by flooding the air waves with TV ads. However, he still has not secured the most aware Democratic voters who are choosing Coakley and Capuano before him.”

On the Republican side, state Sen. Scott Brown (45 percent) led Jack E. Robinson (7 percent) with 47 percent undecided.

In General Election head-to-head matchups between the Democratic contenders and the GOP’s Brown, only Khazei fell short, with 33 percent of voters choosing Brown and 30 percent Khazei.

Still of lot of indecisiveness going on here. There’s still some time left before going to vote, and a lot can change.

Crate Steps Down As Mass GOP Chair

The first in many steps required to help save the Massachusetts Republican Party has occurred. Darrell Crate, the Chairman of the Massachusetts Republican Party has stepped down.

State GOP boss Darrell Crate is stepping down when his term ends in January, leaving the struggling party scrambling to find a new leader in the wake of a disastrous governor’s race and crushing local and national defeats.

Some Republicans called for Crate’s resignation in the wake of Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey’s lopsided loss to Deval Patrick, but Crate downplayed the role of the race in his decision.

“I ran to do this for four years,” said Crate, chief financial officer for Affiliated Manager’s Group, the $4 billion acquisition firm run by Healey’s husband, Sean. “It’s a lot of fun and it’s been great to get the party back on the right track but four years is also a long time.”

There are four names being mentioned as possible successors.

Former U.S. Rep. Peter Torkildsen, who is now executive director of the state Workforce Investment Board;

Communications strategist and Suffolk University professor Ronald Vining;

Conservative columnist and TV personality Robert Parks;

Right-wing talk show host and former Massport CEO Peter Blute.

Only Vining and Parks have announced their candidacies.

Suffolk Poll: Patrick’s Lead Narrows

Kerry Healey has closed the gap between herself and Deval Patrick, as a new Suffolk University Poll indicates that Patrick’s lead over Healey is now down to 13%.

With less than four weeks remaining until the Final Election, Republican nominee Kerry Healey (33%) has closed to within 13% of frontrunner Democratic nominee Deval Patrick (46%), according to a 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll released today. Independent Christy Mihos (7%) and Green Rainbow nominee Grace Ross (1%) were far behind. There were 12% of likely voters undecided.

The new poll measures the impact over the past week of Healey’s tough campaign ads, and her focus on Patrick’s legal work for convicted criminals.

More bad news for Patrick…

When likely voters were asked if Deval Patrick is soft on crime, 32% said “yes,” 41% indicated “no,” and 27% were undecided. That contrasts with 7NEWS-Suffolk University poll of a week ago when only 17% said “yes,” 45% indicated “no,” and 37% were undecided, a net change of 19%. The most dramatic difference in this question was among Independents who said Deval Patrick is soft on crime by a 37%-36% margin. A week ago, only 19% of Independents said that Patrick was soft on crime, while 41% indicated he was not.

The 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll also reveals that Patrick’s popularity has been tarnished somewhat (-10%) by Healey’s onslaught of attack ads. Last week, Patrick’s favorability rating was 55% favorable-24% unfavorable. Today, his popularity is 50% favorable-31% unfavorable.

Young Party-ers

The Boston Herald reported on the wave of youth on Beacon Hill.

The landscape of Beacon Hill is going through a much-needed transformation. A younger, hipper, hungrier group of people are pulling the strings at the State House, and the people you think you need to know might not be so obvious.

“There is a huge network of young people on Beacon Hill,” said Rep. Linda Dorcena Forry(D-Dorchester). At 31, Forry won the the 12th District seat, a post previously held by former Speaker of the House Tom Finneran.

So the next time you see someone at Dunkin’ Donuts at the corner of Park and Beacon, think twice. It may not be a Suffolk University undergrad – it may just be your next state senator.

The Herald specifically profiled the new executive director of the Massachusetts Republican Party and the communications director of the Massachusetts Democratic Party.

Brian Dodge, Executive Director, Massachusetts Republican Party:

The Massachusetts Republican Party executive director’s office door has been a revolving one the past few years, but this summer the GOP snagged Brian Dodge, a Groveland native, to head the party.

“You’d be hard-pressed to find a Republican in Massachusetts at his age with a comparable breadth of local and national political experience,” raved former party executive director Dominick Ianno.

At 27, the University of Connecticut graduate hit the ground running last month, jumping in to lead the state GOP during what’s shaping up to be a close gubernatorial race.

“It’s been an incredibly busy first six weeks,” said Dodge, who vowed to to keep a Republican in the governor’s seat.

“Politics is a big deal to people in Massachusetts. They are capable of making very calculated, logical decisions, hence four Republican governors,” Dodge said, laughing.

Dodge has no doubt that Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey will be sitting pretty in the governor’s seat by November, saying one of the candidate’s strongests assest is her ability to relate to people on a personal level and appeal to what matters to them.

A nice, positive statement, unlike from Cyndi Roy, Communications Director of Massachusetts Democratic Party:

The state Democratic Party is finally getting a face lift thanks to a new young communications director named Cyndi Roy.

At only 24, the former State House News reporter might be one of the youngest players on the Hill, but she’s no ageist.

“I’ve been able to handle the job, so the age factor goes away,” Roy said.

The Chicopee native is well aware of the gubernatorial dogfight in front of her.

“My focus is Kerry Healey and letting people know why she would make a bad governor,” Roy said. “No matter who the Democratic candidate is.”

There’s an old saying that you can’t teach an old dog new tricks, well, apparently, you can’t teach a young dog new tricks either, as Cyndi Roy’s apparently playing with same dusty handbook of the Democratic Party. Funny how she discounts the notion of playing up the positive aspects of the Democratic candidates, rather, it’s always “bad mouth the Republican” as their strategy.

Cyndi Roy could have said, “my focus is letting people know why we need a Democratic governor”–but she didn’t. I guess she’s still used to childish retorts like “I know you are but what am I?” Yeah, she’ll fit right in with the Democratic Party.