New Suffolk Poll has Scott Brown Up By Four Points

We’re gonna win this one folks!

Riding a wave of opposition to Democratic health-care reform, GOP upstart Scott Brown is leading in the U.S. Senate race, raising the odds of a historic upset that would reverberate all the way to the White House, a new poll shows.

Although Brown’s 4-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley is within the Suffolk University/7News survey’s margin of error, the underdog’s position at the top of the results stunned even pollster David Paleologos.

“It’s a Brown-out,” said Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “It’s a massive change in the political landscape.”

The poll shows Brown, a state senator from Wrentham, besting Coakley, the state’s attorney general, by 50 percent to 46 percent, the first major survey to show Brown in the lead. Unenrolled long-shot Joseph L. Kennedy, an information technology executive with no relation to the famous family, gets 3 percent of the vote. Only 1 percent of voters were undecided.

Paleologos said bellweather models show high numbers of independent voters turning out on election day, which benefits Brown, who has 65 percent of that bloc compared to Coakley’s 30 percent. Kennedy earns just 3 percent of the independent vote, and 1 percent are undecided.

Given the 4.4-point margin of error, the poll shows Coakley could win the race, Paleologos said. But if Brown’s momentum holds, he is poised to succeed the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy – and to halt health-care reform, the issue the late senator dubbed “the cause of my life.”

For more on the poll, click here …and here.

Don’t Count on Six More Years of John Kerry

Earlier this week, BostonNow published a story that all but declared Ogonowski’s defeat in his Senate bid to unseat Senator John Kerry. They based their assessment solely on how much money each candidate has in their coffers. Surely, if you look at things in terms of dollars and cents, thing look bleak for Ogonowski, who only has $44,000 in campaign cash on hand compared to $10.1 million for Kerry. But I’ve been saying for some time now that no opponent to John Kerry should be discounted, and the BostonNOW article totally ignores various known facts about Kerry’s vulnerability. For starters, last year a 7News-Suffolk poll found “that 56 percent of Massachusetts registered voters want to give someone else a shot at Kerry’s Senate seat.” Not exactly good news for Kerry. I’m not aware of any polls putting Kerry and Ogonowski head to head… but polls have shown Kerry in serious trouble against the other GOP candidate, Jeff Beatty.

Just 60 days after forming an exploratory committee to defeat John Kerry for the US Senate in 2008, Jeff Beatty is receiving favorable support from voters across Massachusetts. A July poll conducted by the renowned Zogby organization shows Jeff Beatty to be in a virtual tie with the junior senator and former presidential candidate.

Zogby provided respondents with basic biographical information on John Kerry, Jeff Beatty and other Republican candidates and then asked “who would you vote for?” Results in the head-to-head competition were:

• First; Kerry 48 % Beatty 45% (3 point margin ‚Äì error margin 4.1% = a tie)

• Second; Kerry 56 %, Healey 37% (19 point loss)
• Third; Kerry 61%, Card 29% (32 point loss)

Against Jeff Beatty, the incumbent‚Äôs vote percentage plummeted below 50%–with Beatty in a virtual tie for the Senate seat, while Kerry rose significantly when pitted against the other Republican contenders. Results show that Beatty has rapidly become the front runner in the race to defeat John Kerry. The Zogby survey consisted of 41% Democrats, 20% Republicans and 38% unenrolled or independents.

Considering how close the Tsongas-Ogonowski congressional race was, and given Kerry’s clear vulnerability, it’s not unreasonable to assume that Ogonowski would poll just as well against Kerry as Beatty has… and that only means trouble for John Kerry.

AP: Ogonowski Plans Senate Run Against John Kerry

Jim Ogonowski, who narrowly lost his congressional bid to Niki Tsongas last year, appears to be on the verge of launching a bid for the U.S. Senate against John Kerry.

Republican Jim Ogonowski, who narrowly lost a congressional race to Niki Tsongas in October, is preparing to challenge U.S. Sen. John Kerry, The Associated Press has learned.

Ogonowski, the brother of an airline pilot killed in the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, said he’s been attending Republican events around the state since his 6-point loss to Tsongas, a Democrat.

“There‚Äôs nobody in Washington who represents the status quo more than John Kerry,” said Ogonowski, who did not officially declare his candidacy.

The obvious question to ask is “Does Ogonowski have a shot?”

When it comes to money, he doesn’t even come close to having the same amount that Kerry does. According to the article, Kerry has $9.5 million in his coffers, compared to Ogonowski’s $65,000. Ogonowski was similarly outspent and outraised last year, but still managed force the Democratic Party to spend time and resources to keep a hold on the district. Simply put, Ogonowski can appeal to Democrats and independents, and that makes him a threat.

Another factor to consider is John Kerry’s poll numbers. Last year, a Suffolk Poll found that John Kerry was vulnerable in 2008 to keep his Senate seat. I said back then that the right candidate could have a chance.

That said, John Kerry’s vulnerability may be a moot point because of the presidential election, which will drive up turnout and make it even hard for Ogonowski to win a state-wide election in a ridiculously blue state. Perhaps if John Kerry were to be knocked out in the primary by challenger Ed O’Reilly, it would boost Ogonowski’s chances… But, I’m not counting on that scenario.

More on this as it develops.

Suffolk Poll: Kerry Vulnerable in 2008 For Senate Seat

A new 7News-Suffolk poll says that 56 percent of Massachusetts registered voters want to give someone else a shot at Kerry’s Senate seat. Only 37 percent say he should run again.

This is clearly bad news for Kerry, and, according the Boston Herald’s Wayne Woodlief, “very good news for any well-heeled Republican who might try a run against Long Jawn. Or even for somebody who isn‚Äôt rich but is [...] ‘an aggressive, strong politician’ who could see the national GOP open its coffers if Kerry‚Äôs numbers stay that low. Especially with control of the Senate at stake.”

Sure, this offers a very small glimmer of hope for the Massachusetts Republican Party. But, Kerry’s vulnerability may also inspire some Massachusetts congressmen with large campaign coffers to take Kerry out in the primaries. Now, if Kerry survives the primaries and the Mass GOP offers a viable candidate to oppose him, the seat could very well become competitive… certainly the most competitive race for Kerry in quite some time.

The Massachusetts GOP will definitely recruit someone to challenge Kerry. The right candidate (basically anyone but Ken Chase) might have a chance to give Kerry a run for his wife’s money. But, should the race end up being between Kerry and a potential GOP opponent, Kerry’s low poll numbers like won’t be enough to ensure his defeat in a general election.

As we know, Kerry is up for reelection next year, a presidential election year. This would likely hurt Kerry in a primary election since presidential elections boost turnout (and clearly registered voters want a change), but would only help him in the general election, since even higher turnout in November will make it harder for a Republican to prevail. Is the national GOP really going to invest in a campaign for a normally safe Democratic Senate seat during a presidential campaign season?

I suspect any GOP challenger to Kerry for his Senate will have rely solely on support for the Massachusetts GOP with only nominal support from the national GOP… they will have bigger and safer fish to fry in 2008.

The timing is certainly something that cannot be ignored. Romney’s “Reform Team” in 2004, while giving several Democrats a serious challenge, did nothing to increase Republican representation in this state, largely due to the presidential election.

The other scenario to consider is if a current Massachusetts congressman decides to challenge Kerry — which is certainly possible given his poll numbers. Should Kerry get knocked out in the primary, the resulting open seat in the House would provide a better opportunity for the Massachusetts GOP — which sees more opportunity in open seats.

Suffolk Poll: Patrick’s Lead Narrows

Kerry Healey has closed the gap between herself and Deval Patrick, as a new Suffolk University Poll indicates that Patrick’s lead over Healey is now down to 13%.

With less than four weeks remaining until the Final Election, Republican nominee Kerry Healey (33%) has closed to within 13% of frontrunner Democratic nominee Deval Patrick (46%), according to a 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll released today. Independent Christy Mihos (7%) and Green Rainbow nominee Grace Ross (1%) were far behind. There were 12% of likely voters undecided.

The new poll measures the impact over the past week of Healey’s tough campaign ads, and her focus on Patrick’s legal work for convicted criminals.

More bad news for Patrick…

When likely voters were asked if Deval Patrick is soft on crime, 32% said “yes,” 41% indicated “no,” and 27% were undecided. That contrasts with 7NEWS-Suffolk University poll of a week ago when only 17% said “yes,” 45% indicated “no,” and 37% were undecided, a net change of 19%. The most dramatic difference in this question was among Independents who said Deval Patrick is soft on crime by a 37%-36% margin. A week ago, only 19% of Independents said that Patrick was soft on crime, while 41% indicated he was not.

The 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll also reveals that Patrick’s popularity has been tarnished somewhat (-10%) by Healey’s onslaught of attack ads. Last week, Patrick’s favorability rating was 55% favorable-24% unfavorable. Today, his popularity is 50% favorable-31% unfavorable.