Massachusetts Law: Kirk Can’t Vote After Tuesday

The Weekly Standard’s Fred Barnes explains:

Appointed Senator Paul Kirk will lose his vote in the Senate after Tuesday’s election in Massachusetts of a new senator and cannot be the 60th vote for Democratic health care legislation, according to Republican attorneys.

Kirk has vowed to vote for the Democratic bill even if Republican Scott Brown is elected but not yet certified by state officials and officially seated in the Senate. Kirk’s vote is crucial because without the 60 votes necessary to stop a Republican filibuster, the bill will be defeated.

This would be a devastating loss for President Obama and congressional Democrats. The bill, dubbed ObamaCare, is the centerpiece of the president’s agenda. Brown has campaigned on becoming the 41st vote against ObamaCare.

But in the days after the election, it is Kirk’s status that matters, not Brown’s. Massachusetts law says that an appointed senator remains in office “until election and qualification of the person duly elected to fill the vacancy.” The vacancy occurred when Senator Edward Kennedy died in August. Kirk was picked as interim senator by Governor Deval Patrick.

Democrats in Massachusetts have talked about delaying Brown’s “certification,” should he defeat Democrat Martha Coakley on Tuesday. Their aim would be to allow Kirk to remain in the Senate and vote the health care bill.

But based on Massachusetts law, Senate precedent, and the U.S. Constitution, Republican attorneys said Kirk will no longer be a senator after election day, period. Brown meets the age, citizenship, and residency requirements in the Constitution to qualify for the Senate. “Qualification” does not require state “certification,” the lawyers said.

An appointed senator’s right to vote is not dependent on whether his successor has been certified, the lawyers said. In Massachusetts, the election of a senator must be certified by the governor, the governor’s council, and the secretary of state – all of them Democrats.

So, all the delays being floated by Democrats are irrelevant. But then again, Massachusetts Democrats have a long record of considering Massachusetts law irrelevant. The way they’ve schemed to keep Brown out of the Senate shows not only contempt for the law and our representative democracy, but for the people who who are governed by those very laws.

Finally… Some Polling in the Senate Special Election

Waiting for a poll in the Senate Special Election? Wait no longer…

There has been a notable absence of public polling in the January 19 special election in Massachusetts to fill Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat. That will begin to change tomorrow, when Scott Rasmussen releases the results of a poll that he’s conducting tonight.

But THE WEEKLY STANDARD has obtained the results of a private poll conducted last week by a reputable non-partisan firm. In that survey, Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley led Republican state senator Scott Brown in the ballot test by 50% to 39%–not bad for Brown in a state Obama carried by 23 points. More interesting, perhaps, is that while Coakley’s favorable/unfavorable rating was 61% to 32%, Brown’s was 56% to 26%–in other words, they were virtually identical at +29/30. That suggests a potentially very competitive race: If Brown can make his case against another Democratic vote in the U.S. Senate, or against rewarding a member of unpopular governor Deval Patrick’s administration, some voters who currently prefer Coakley might be open to voting for Brown, since they view him favorably as well. THE WEEKLY STANDARD has also learned that an earlier poll, done in mid-December by another firm for another client, had similar results in the ballot test–but that the poll also found that the race tightened significantly, down to a low single digits margin for Coakley, among those judged most likely to vote. Furthermore, a careful analysis by Sean Trende shows, that if one assumes a swing against the Democrats like that in New Jersey and Virginia two months ago, the race could become very close.

Of course, Massachusetts is a tough state for a Republican to win. But anecdotally, the enthusiasm and momentum seems on Brown’s side, as Jim Geraghty describes in his post titled “Anecdotes for Cheer, Data for Gloom.” The anecdotes include the fact that Coakley is hiding from the media and avoiding one-and-one debates–to the disgust of the Boston Globe!, and that there are lots of reports of a surge in Republican enthusiasm. And if Curt Schilling is for Brown, who can rule him out?

This is getting real interesting. If the gap is closer than Democrats have long thought, will Coakley come out from under the rock she’s been hiding?

Still, there is a long way to go if Scott Brown wants to emerge victorious, but it may be safe to say he’s not quite the “long-shot” he was once thought to be. Help him out by donating to his campaign.

UPDATE: From Rasmussen:

Both candidates get better than 70% of the vote from members of their respective parties, but Brown leads 65% to 21% among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. In Massachusetts, however, Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans and it is very difficult for the GOP to compete except in special circumstances. Eight percent (8%) of Democrats remain undecided while just 3% of Republicans are in that category.

See survey results.

Deval Says He Considered Not Seeking Reelection on WTKK

I think I speak for most of the people of the Commonwealth that we would have been a lot better off had he not run in the first place back in 2006.

Gov. Deval Patrick says he considered not seeking re-election next year because of the “wear and tear” he experienced the past three years.

He told listeners during his monthly appearance on WTKK-FM that he did not expect as much “hand-to-hand combat with my friends,” including fellow Democrats, labor leaders and other supporters of his 2006 election campaign. But he said he decided to run again because he feels he has more work to accomplish.

The governor said many people who supported his so-called change agenda have bristled when he has asked changes of them.

Aww… Poor baby. Imagine that… it is actually had to run a state than to campaign on empty promises. Who’d have thunk it?  Ironically, we are seeing the same thing happen with Barack Obama, whose presidential campaign was modeled after Deval’s. Obama is seeing himself fight people in his own party in order to push through an agenda the American people don’t support.

Patrick did not name names, but he also says he expects “fear” to be used against him as he seeks re-election.

He’s being challenged by Republicans Charles Baker and Christy Mihos, and state Treasurer Timothy Cahill, an independent.

Fear? That’s cute. Let’s me honest here. Deval Patrick knows that his chances of getting reelected are small. The cycle has already begun where Democrats across the country are announcing their retirement, or just deciding not to run for reelection. Sometimes, politicians find it better for their legacy to leave office on their own terms rather than lose an election. I am sure Deval has considered not running many times… and those times probably coincided with the release of a new poll showing his approval ratings getting worse, or election match-ups showing his defeat.

One thing we can take from this nugget of news is that Deval Patrick clearly wasn’t ready to be governor. The people of Massachusetts have slowly learned this, too. Deval Patrick campaigned as an outsider, but the problem is that he was an outsider without enough experience to help him handle the job.

Having an outsider as governor isn’t a bad thing. It worked for us when Mitt Romney was governor. Things were certainly better when he was in office. But an outsider should have adequate private sector experience that gives him the knowledge it takes to run a state. Deval Patrick didn’t have that. Your average small business owner has more applicable knowledge than someone with Deval’s experience.

Baker Picks Tisei

Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker has chosen Senator Richard Tisei as his running mate.

Republican gubernatorial hopeful Charlie Baker has picked state Sen. Richard R. Tisei as his running mate, according to his campaign Web site and Facebook page.

An announcement is scheduled for 11 a.m. today at the American Civic Center in Tisei’s hometown of Wakefield, State House News is reporting.

Baker’s campaign manager could not be immediately reached for comment.

“Richard has years of experience fighting for the taxpayer on Beacon Hill and I’m thrilled to have him on the team,” Baker said in a statement posted on his campaign Web site.

The Web page contained on CharlieBaker2010.com included a photo of Tisei and an image of Baker-Tisei 2010 bumper sticker.

Baker and the Senate minority leader will take on convenience store magnate Christy Mihos in the Republican primary. The winner is set to face off against state Treasurer Timothy Cahill and incumbent Gov. Deval Patrick in a three-way contest in 2010.

I’m curious why Baker made this announcement now, instead of say, in late January or February. Baker has been trailing in the polls versus Christy Mihos since day one, and to make such an important announcement the week of Thanksgiving seems poorly timed. Baker may have been much better suited to have waited until after the US Senate Special Election. This would have accomplished two things.

First, that election would be over and done with. Right now, the special election is hot to trot, and the election is virtually around the corner; the gubernatorial contest isn’t for another 11+ months. What would the harm of been to wait two more months?

Second, of course, is knowing whether or not Scott Brown would be available as a running mate, should he even want it. Picking Brown, who would have just completed a fast-paced state wide campaign, would offer the campaign someone with some state-wide name recognition; I don’t think Tisei can offer that. There is a reason why Mihos is ahead of Baker in every poll…and it’s not because Mihos is a favorite of the MassGOP establishment. Tisei, the Senate Minority Leader, has served in the state senate for 25 years and is (still) up for reelection next year. If Baker-Tisei wins, that could lead to another lost Republican seat in the state senate. Why give up a seat in the senate held by a Republican for 25 years?

Additionally, by making the pick now, Baker has given Christy Mihos the opportunity to “out do” his choice of Tisei, as well as take advantage of the expected media attention while the gubernatorial race is hot on everyone’s minds. There’s something to be said about getting the last word.

Seeing as Baker has not seen a lead in the polls, ever, I’d say this was poorly played. Mihos still has the upper hand here…let’s see what he does with it.

[Editors Note: This post has been updated. It was previously stated that Scott Brown was not seeking reelection. To clarify, Scott Brown has said he will serve one more term in the State Senate, but is not seeking reelection in 2012.]

What The Polls Are Saying

Deval Patrick is tanking. Anyone surprised?

A majority of Bay State voters say Gov. Deval Patrick has mishandled the state’s economy, according to a poll released this morning.

The Suffolk University/7 News survey of 600 registered voters found that while 37 percent approve of the governor’s management of the local economy, 55 percent disapprove. Of that number, 29 percent strongly disapprove.

“It’s one of many data points that show the majority of voters are unhappy with the governor,” said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, who conducted the poll from Nov. 4-8. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Oddly enough, Patrick leads the three-way contest against Tim Cahill and Christy Mihos, according to the Suffolk University/7 News survey.

Gov. Patrick’s negative marks have inched up to 47 percent since September, when they stood at 45 percent. Nevertheless, he remains predominant (36 percent) in a contest with state Treasurer Tim Cahill (26 percent), running as an Independent, and Republican businessman Christy Mihos (20 percent).

And still interesting to note that Christy Mihos still leads the way in the race for the Republican Primary.

Republican primary voters give Mihos the edge (33 percent) over Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO Charlie Baker (30 percent) in a GOP primary. Baker led Mihos among registered Republicans (33 percent to 28 percent) but Mihos, a former Independent candidate for Governor in 2006, outpolled Baker among Republican-leaning Independents (39 percent to 25 percent).

A general election scenario with Baker in the mix ticks Patrick up to 38 percent; Cahill remains at 26 percent; and Baker gets just 15 percent.

Doesn’t look like Charlie Baker is making much progress if he wants to get the Republican nod.

And what about the Senate special election?

On the race to replace Sen. Edward M. Kennedy’s seat, 56 percent of voters are undecided over which candidate offers the best economic policies.

Attorney General Martha Coakley, a Democrat, topped the six-person race with 13 percent, followed by 11 percent for Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, 10 percent for Celtics [team stats] co-owner and Democrat Stephen Pagliuca and 9 percent for Congressman Michael Capuano (D-Somerville). Democrat and City Year co-founder Alan Khazei and Republican Jack E. Robinson were at zero percent.

More data on the poll from Suffolk University…

On the Democratic side of the Senate race, 44 percent chose Coakley, followed by 17 percent for Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca, 16 percent for U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano, and 3 percent for City Year founder Alan Khazei. Twenty percent were undecided.

“Steve Pagliuca scored the biggest improvement since September,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “He traveled from zero to second place by flooding the air waves with TV ads. However, he still has not secured the most aware Democratic voters who are choosing Coakley and Capuano before him.”

On the Republican side, state Sen. Scott Brown (45 percent) led Jack E. Robinson (7 percent) with 47 percent undecided.

In General Election head-to-head matchups between the Democratic contenders and the GOP’s Brown, only Khazei fell short, with 33 percent of voters choosing Brown and 30 percent Khazei.

Still of lot of indecisiveness going on here. There’s still some time left before going to vote, and a lot can change.