He’s Misstra Know-It-All

Can Gov. Patrick get any worse?

Gov. Deval Patrick’s punchy campaign staff sent out an e-mail blast to supporters Monday night hoping to blunt yesterday’s Herald expose on the administration’s year-long hiring frenzy, flinching even before the brutal news hit the street.

But experts warn the attempted pre-emptive political strike is risky business for the slumping governor’s re-election bid.

“It just whiffs of desperation,” said Thomas Whalen, a Boston University political science professor. “It sounds like they can’t afford to have any bad news, so they’re trying to get on top of bad stories before they even come out.”

Patrick campaign officials sounded the alarm Monday night – hours before the Herald’s splash landed on racks. The report detailed how the administration has hired some 1,300 new employees this year – including a librarian for cons, a painter for public health and a “game biologist” – despite a spiraling fiscal crisis.

“The story may unfairly distort the Governor’s outstanding record of confronting our state’s budget challenges,” Patrick campaign manager Sydney Asbury wrote in the e-mail obtained by the Herald.

Asbury also urged readers to “forward the e-mail to 10 friends” in an attempted viral campaign to spin the story in their favor.

However, a subsequent Herald payroll analysis shows the administration in fact low-balled the projected annual salaries of some of the new hires by as much as $34,000.

Reached yesterday to explain the mistaken figures provided to the Herald, Sally McNeely of the state Human Resources Division, said, “It appears an error was made in the initial entry.”

Meanwhile, Patrick campaign spokesman Steve Crawford said the e-mail blast – which highlighted a 2,000-job net loss from the state payroll – was standard operating procedure. “We place a high level of importance on keeping our supporters informed and this is another example of that,” he said.

A rapid response to head off bad press isn’t new to political campaigning, but it runs the risk of spreading negative news to an even larger group, said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political science professor.

“It can end up drawing even more attention to the matter,” said Sabato. “Obviously Patrick has a very tough general election in front of him, and he has to come out swinging every time there’s a charge against him.”

UPDATE: More from the Globe.

SECOND UPDATE: More from the Beacon Hill Institute, Holly Robichaud and Globe.

THIRD UPDATE: More from Howie Carr and the Herald.

Climate Change

Will the Bay State economy improve next year?

After examining the state’s slide into a recession last
year and the emerging prospects for recovery taking root this year,
The Beacon Hill Institute at Suffolk University today released its
revised forecast of Massachusetts state tax revenues for fiscal year
(FY) 2010 and a new forecast for FY2011.

The Institute’s forecasts for state tax revenues are:
• For FY 2010 (ending June 30, 2010): $18.545 billion, a 1.6%
increase over FY2009; and
• For FY 2011 (ending June 30, 2011): $19.211 billion, a 3.6%
increase over FY 2010.

David G. Tuerck, Executive Director of the Beacon Hill Institute (BHI)
and Chairman of the Department of Economics at Suffolk University,
and Paul Bachman, BHI Director of Research, presented the forecast
in testimony before the legislature’s Updated Consensus Revenue
Hearing. The hearing took place on the heels of falling September tax
revenues which came in $243 million below estimates used for the
current budget.

“With the national economy in recession, Massachusetts has not been
spared a dramatic loss in tax revenues,” said Tuerck. “Job losses will translate into continued lower personal income tax revenue for the Commonwealth in FY 2010,” said Tuerck in his testimony. “However, the evidence from recent data, combined with the recently enacted
sales tax increase, suggest that overall revenues will increase slightly in FY 2010.”

UPDATE: More from the AP and Reuters.

SECOND UPDATE: From the American Spectator and Globe.

THIRD UPDATE: More from the New York Post, Boston Herald and Joan Vennochi.

Get Up, Stand Up

Will Tim Cahill be the Bay State’s Great Independent Hope?

State Treasurer Timothy P. Cahill plans to announce today that he will challenge Governor Deval Patrick as an independent candidate in next year’s governor’s race, according to several people aware of his plans.

Cahill, who dropped out of the Democratic Party this summer after becoming disillusioned with its direction, has scheduled a late-morning news conference to make his decision public. He intends to kick off the campaign at a fund-raiser at the Adams Inn in Quincy, his hometown.

Cahill will compete against Republicans Charles D. Baker, a former executive at Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, and possibly convenience store magnate Christy Mihos. Mihos is seriously considering switching gears to run for the Senate seat of Edward M. Kennedy, according to an adviser.

Cahill, a longtime Democrat who has served as treasurer since 2003, would not comment on his plans yesterday.

But he has told supporters he feels frustrated that the state cannot function within its budget and continually asks taxpayers for more money.

With his experience at the local, county, and state levels, Cahill believes, he is the most qualified to run the state at a time of financial difficulty, supporters said.

UPDATE: Please be sure to join us this Wednesday night at 8:00pm EST on The Notes on Blog Talk Radio; our guest will be Frank Conte of the Beacon Hill Institute. Plus, more from Boston Magazine and the Herald.

SECOND UPDATE: More from WBUR, Boston Globe, AP and Joan Vennochi.

Beacon Hill Institute: Green Jobs Won’t Benefit The Economy

A new study from The Beacon Hill Institute (BHI) at Suffolk University finds that recent studies claiming economic benefits to government imposed “green jobs” were flawed, and that such a program will actually hurt the economy, not help it.

Recent studies forecasting the potential economic benefits of government green job programs are critically flawed and erroneously promote these jobs as a benefit, according to a report released today by The Beacon Hill Institute (BHI) at Suffolk University.

The economic analysis reviewed the primary claims of three of the most influential green jobs studies and found serious economic flaws in each.

“Contrary to the claims made in these studies, we found that the green job initiatives reviewed in each actually causes greater harm than good to the American economy and will cause growth to slow,” reported Paul Bachman, Director of Research at the Beacon Hill Institute, one of the report’s authors.

Similar “green jobs” programs in other countries also support claims that these programs result in more harm than good.

You can read the full text of the study here (PDF).

Taxes, Taxes, Taxes…

When Beacon Hill pols talk about increasing taxes, it’s not long before it becomes reality. Brace yourselves, amidst talks of hiking up gas taxes, tolls, booze taxes and personal income taxes, the sales tax will soon jump to 6%.

Top state lawmakers are seriously considering a controversial and politically risky plan to boost the sales tax by one penny to 6 percent, socking it to Bay State residents already facing possible gas and booze hikes.

Both House Speaker Robert DeLeo (D-Winthrop) and Senate Ways and Means chairman Steve Panagiotakos (D-Lowell) are eying a sales tax of 6 cents on the dollar that they say would bring an additional $750 million a year into state coffers.

“I don’t think anything can be considered as off the table,” DeLeo said yesterday, later adding he plans to pass reforms before any additional taxes are considered.

A conservative think tank blasted any talk of a sales tax hike in a tough economy, saying that even a one penny increase could mean a loss of 10,000 private sector jobs along with a $40 million drop in investment revenue.

“Any tax increase the state undertakes right now will have a negative effect on the economy because it will drive business to other states,” said Beacon Hill Institute Executive Director David Tuerck, who urged lawmakers to focus on cuts instead.

[...]

Yesterday’s sales tax chatter comes as lawmakers issued more dire warnings, saying the state faces a $4 billion-plus budget deficit next year. Rep. Ellen Story (D-Amherst) said House leaders are also discussing raising the personal income tax to 5.4 percent from 5.3 percent, which she said would bring in an additional $200 million.

“We’re going to have to look at new revenues,” Story said. “The rainy day fund will absolutely not last that long.”

As I’ve said, as well as many others before, how about cutting spending first? Can you at least give it some serious thought?

When Beacon Hill pols vote for the sales tax hike–and we can reasonably assume they will–how will we respond? If your representative or senator votes to raise these taxes, are you going to continue to reward him or her with your vote?