Who’s the “Party of the Rich” Now?

The special election for U.S. Senate last week revealed some intriguing demographic trends in Massachusetts that present a unique opportunity for the state Republican Party.

Take a look at this map showing margins of victory by town in last week’s election. Notably, Scott Brown generally performed better in exurban towns and less affluent suburbs such as North Andover, Canton, and Reading than in the wealthiest suburbs west of Boston such as Wellesley, Belmont, and Needham. Brown’s margins in many largely middle-class towns were greater than Mitt Romney’s in 2002, which is the last year there was a truly competitive statewide race in Massachusetts. However, Romney performed better than Brown in the upscale western suburbs. What explains this apparent paradox?

These results reflect a larger shift in the demographic makeup of both major political parties, which has been taking place across the country in recent years, culminating in 2008. The Obama coalition that year was formed of three basic demographic elements. The first element was made up of those with the least money in the country; Obama beat out McCain by 48 points among those earning less than $15,000 a year. The second element was made up of many of the wealthiest Americans.

The first element’s support for Obama is not entirely surprising. However, the Democrats’ gains among affluent Americans are somewhat of a surprise, especially given that Republicans have long held a lock on the wealthy vote. For example, as recently as 2004, President Bush won those Americans earning more than $100,000 a year by 17 points, and won those earning more than $200,000 a year by 28 points. In 2008, Obama beat out McCain by 6 points among those earning more than $100,000 a year, a 23 point turnaround in just four years. And Obama tied for the votes of those earning more than $200,000 a year, a 28 point gain from the previous presidential election.

The third element of the Obama coalition was made up of a large number of Americans in between the income extremes, many of whom likely believed he would fulfill his campaign promise to unite Americans by launching a pragmatic, “postpartisan” political era. Indeed, while Bush tied for the votes of those Americans earning in between $30,000-$50,000 a year in 2004, Obama won this group by 12 points in 2008. And while in 2004 Bush won those earning in between $50,000-$75,000 a year by 13 points, Obama tied for the votes of this group four years later. These middle-class voters make up much of the population of the swing districts/states that were crucial to Obama’s victory in 2008, mostly in the middle of the country or in non-coastal sections of coastal states. And they are the same voters who have abandoned Obama in droves over the last year as his campaign promises of bipartisanship have been revealed to be mostly hollow.

One explanation for the migration of wealthy Americans to the Democrats in recent years has its roots in the boom of the technology and financial sectors between 1995-2008, which resulted in the rapid acquisition of great wealth among many Americans. This argument holds that such quick accumulation of wealth has weakened the connection for many affluent Americans between wealth and the policies that encourage success (i.e. low tax rates), which held more salience in the years when wealth was acquired as a result of many years of hard work. Among the new elite, social issues and environmental causes apparently trump economic self-interest. This is especially true among the very wealthy. For them, the impact of the recession has been minimal and the tax consequences of grandiose policy schemes are of little concern.

I would argue that the change is also generational. Newly wealthy members of the younger generations who have never known the days of tax rates as high as 90% in the early 1960s may not be aware of the possible long-term consequences of supporting Democrats. I imagine some of these wealthy Americans may begin to shift their party allegiances as those consequences (i.e. tax increases) become more clear in the coming years.

One definitive consequence of this demographic shift is the change in the power base of the Democratic Party. While still powerful, blue collar constituencies such as unions, already weakened because of declining membership, have lost ground to special interest groups funded by wealthy donors like George Soros, such as Moveon.org. And increasing numbers of Democratic candidates come from the ranks of the very wealthy, with the likes of Jon Corzine, Ned Lamont, and Maria Cantwell, among others, spending millions to fund their own campaigns.

These trends are also evident in Massachusetts, which last week’s election showed is not as ideologically homogenous as some pundits would lead us to believe. Indeed, the state Democratic Party here mirrors the national party in that it is an awkward coalition of conservative and liberal factions. In recent years, the wealthy liberal faction has taken over the leadership of the state Democratic party in Massachusetts, as evidenced by the nomination of Deval Patrick and the ascension of his top supporters into state party leadership. However, these changes have not taken place without some public dissatisfaction from conservative Democrats.

In a wise move, Scott Brown took advantage of this intraparty split by making a specific (and successful) appeal to conservative Democrats tired of the obvious elitism of their party leaders. In doing so, he laid out a political blueprint that may serve other Bay State Republicans well this fall.

Indeed, the intraparty split among Democrats is an important development that could be crucial towards making some serious Republican gains in November. It certainly should be eagerly exploited by state Republican leaders, who should take advantage of this dynamic by recruiting candidates from among the ranks of the middle-class “Brown Majority,” especially conservative Democrats and independents. These candidates could, like Scott Brown, begin to represent a new perception of the Republican brand in this state, and attract conservative Democrats as well as large numbers of middle-class independents who are fed up with the arrogance of state and national Democrats. Let’s hope our state Republican leaders take advantage of this unique opportunity. Their decision to do so could be crucial towards exponentially increasing Republican power from the local level on up this fall.

Gingrich Slams Mass GOP

A much deserved criticism of the Massachusetts Republican Party coming from former House Speaker New Gingrich.

GOP gadfly Newt Gingrich slammed Bay State Republicans for failing to cultivate a new crop of eager and committed contenders – adding the lagging party needs candidates willing to suffer bruising losses and come back for more.

“I would hope that (the Massachusetts Republican Party) would find some people who care enough about the country’s future to go out and get started and keep doing it,” Gingrich told the Herald. “Republicans here have never been able to build the kind of grassroots strength that you need.”

MassGOP chairwoman Jennifer Nassour said the party has scoured the state for new talent.

“Our candidates for 2010 represent a Republican Party of new energy and new ideas to deliver real reforms to Massachusetts,” Nassour said.

Gingrich, who lectured at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government last night, blamed an alliance between the state’s conservative Democrats and liberals for the GOP party’s struggles.

The former U.S. House speaker called state candidates that run only once “sad,” adding, “When people see you coming and they see you’re serious – you can build a momentum over time that you sometimes can’t get in a first campaign.”

The Massachusetts GOP has recently hit a low with only 16 Republicans in the House and five in the state Senate.

At this moment, my faith in the Massachusetts Republican Party to stop the sinking ship is virtually nil. Sure, we have a golden opportunity to take back the Corner Office, but let’s be honest, it’s not the success of the Republican Party that will make that possible, it’s the failure of Governor Deval Patrick.

The Republican Party needs to do more than just talk about change…they have to start making change.

Balance: Christy Mihos

Balance. No matter what we talk about or what we do in life there has to be balance; a moderating influence. Without it, the wheels fall off, as in the case of our state government. One-party rule has given us an abuse of power and the embarrassment of the corruption we hear and read about daily.

Job 1 for my candidacy is to bring a reasonable balance back to state government by working to elect Republican Senators and Representatives to our Legislature.

For many reasons we are down to five Republicans in the Senate and sixteen in the House. 21 out of 200 is certainly not balance. In 1990, with similar one-party rule, Governor-elect Bill Weld ushered in 16 Republican Senators and 39 Republican Representatives, meaning full debate and reform was again prevalent in our state government.

Our Republican candidates need money to run good campaigns and in this election cycle, with so much at stake, it’s especially critical. All donations to the MASS GOP will be available only to Legislative Candidates. I pledge not to seek, nor accept, any MASS GOP funds for my campaign. In the past candidates at the top of the ticket took all the donations made to the MASS GOP and left nothing for anyone else. We must have people run for office who, like me, are work horses, not show horses. Without a good balance of Republican legislators, who have been well financed, are running on local issues, and are committed to bringing reform, transparency and accountability to our state government, we can never rebuild our state to what it can be.

Mass GOP Names New Executive Director

The Massachusetts GOP has a new Executive Director.

Massachusetts Republican Party Chairwoman Jennifer Nassour has appointed Nick Connors to serve as the party’s executive director as the GOP works to reverse its downward spiral on Beacon Hill.

Connors served as field director for Kerry Healey’s 2006 campaign for governor and as a deputy regional coalitions director for former President George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign.

Connors also worked in The White House Office of Political Affairs, the U.S. Department of Energy as assistant chief of staff for policy, and as a special assistant in the U.S. Small Business Administration.

Nick Connors is the successor to Robert Willington.

Congratulations and good luck, Nick.

Mass GOP Wants To Hear Your Tax, Toll Gripes

With Deval Patrick continuing to float new fees, toll hikes and taxes, the Massachusetts Republican Party is getting ready to listen to our concerns, or rather complaints.

The state GOP is planning to launch what they are calling a statewide “Hardship Listening Tour.”

Republican lawmakers plan to unveil details of the tour Thursday at the Statehouse.

The goal is to give local residents a change to vent their frustration about plans to raise tolls to as much as $2 at the Allston-Brighton and Weston booths and $7 at the tunnels.

The GOP says it’s also eager to hear from residents angry at Gov. Deval Patrick’s call for an increase of as much as 19 cents in the gas tax.

The tour is set to begin March 16.

What’s disappointing is that no matter how much people complain about new fees, taxes, toll hikes, or whatever ideas come from the majority party here, they never hold the majority party responsible for their support for these tax increases.

The Mass GOP needs to make sure people understand that its not just other peoples’ state senators and representatives that are the problem, it theirs too. Complaining about the problem is not the solution–there needs to be decisive action that follows.