Can Ogonowski Win? Yes He Can.
Jim Ogonowski, who is vying for the vacant seat in the House of Representatives left by the recent departure of Rep. Marty Meehan, was just on CNN talking about his candidacy.
The CNN segment included analysis given by David King, a so-called political expert at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. King claimed that Ogonowski has no chance because the 5th Congressional district is “the bluest of blue districts.”
King may be a political “expert” but one can’t say he’s unbiased. According to OCPF and FEC reports, he’s donated to the campaigns of Deval Patrick ($210), Rep. William Brownsberger ($100), and former LG candidate Andrea Silbert ($50). It’s even harder to accept his “analysis” when you look at the voting record of the district. Which, clearly the Ogonowski campaign is aware of. In an interview with Hub Politics last month, Ogonowski said the 5th congressional district “is a winnable district for Republicans,” and noted that “Governors Weld, Cellucci and Romney all won the district.”
So, clearly the political “expert” King’s assessment that the 5th congressional district “bluest of blue districts,” thus making it unwinnable for Ogonowski, can’t be accepted at face value. Republicans have won in the district before, and the right Republican could easily win it again.
Then there’s this claim, from the CNN.com story:
“This is a district that follows politics very, very carefully and knows all of the players on the Democratic side very well. There is a lot of talent on the Democratic side. Terrific candidates,” King said. “And Lt. Col. Ogonowski is flying in with an air war. He doesn’t have boots on the ground. He doesn’t have troops that are marching door to door. All of the other candidates do.
But Ogonowski is not an unknown. Last month he told Hub Politics, “I have strong roots in the Fifth District,” and expressed his confidence in his chances for victory:
My family has lived in Dracut for over a hundred years, and I’ve lived here all my life. People here care about fiscal discipline, and they also care about the environment, and they’re tired of the usual Washington politics. People know I feel the same way, and they know I’ll take that understanding to Washington. Trust me, I wouldn’t be in this race if I didn’t know I could win!
In facta small army of Ogonowski volunteers have indeed been going door-to-door and making phone calls throughout the district.
Ogonowski also has a growing group of supporters online. The Jim Ogonowski For Congress Facebook group (of which I am a member) has nearly 500 members as of this posting.
Another factor that apparently was not considered by David King was the current low approval rating (24%) and low confidence rating of Congress (14%). Clearly, voters aren’t satisfied with the new Congress, and are certainly going to be very open to change.
The bottom line is that David King’s biased assessment of Ogonowski’s chances ignores several factors that suggest that the seat is winnable for him. Will it be an uphill battle? Certainly. But no matter what the “experts” say, there’s no reason to write off Ogonowski’s campaign. If there’s any Republican who can win in the district, it is Jim Ogonowski.
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TAGS: Deval Patrick, Facebook, Hub Politics, Jim Ogonowski, OCPF, YouTube.
Matt Margolis is co-author (with Mark Noonan) of Caucus of Corruption: The Truth About The New Democratic Majority. He also blogs at The Buffalo Bean. Follow Matt on Twitter.
I would certainly vote for him if I lived in the 5th district. Sadly, I am in the 2nd district represented by the less than honorable Richard Neal.
What disturbs me the most, is that the MA Republican Party does not do more to every election present a choice for the voters. I think they would be surprised the level of support a person would get just because they are not one of the current morons in office.
I sincerely wish Jim well and have contributed to his campaign.
I wish I could vote for Jim but his pro-abortion stance turns me off. I was hoping he would be anti-abortion – that may hurt him.
I thought he said he was pro-life on the Tom Finneran show. Regardless, he’d certainly be better than Niki Tsongas on life issues, I can’t see someone like Ogonowski supporting partial birth abortion. He also supports traditional marriage which is now extremely important in this state.
Wouldn’t it be great if next time around, say in the legislative sessions of 2009-2010 and 2011-2012, we’d have a Mass. GOP Congressman calling our legislators to keep them accountable?
Jim Ogonowski was also a guest at a Massachusetts Independent PAC for Working Families fundraiser, which is a pro-family PAC in the state. They deal only with pro-family issues, not fiscally conservative as their name may imply, so it seems that they have found Ogonowski to be an appropriate candidate for social conservatives to support with a good conscience.
http://mipac.org/events.htm
Can’t win…doesn’t want to end the war asap…he’s says the war was a mistake but we need to finish…makes no sense…have a nice campaign…memories, memories…
Andrew – Agreed, I’m stuck with Delahunt, bastid couldn’t even get me on the White House Tour list!
Brian – Big picture, baby! You can’t decide this on one issue. How likely is it that your Congressman is going to influence ANYTHING to do with the pro-life/pro-choice agenda. Focus. Niki-Jim. Jim-Niki.
Emil – Good job. Good research.
Mr. X – You are such a cynic. It’s why I love you.
Maggie, you’re confusing cynism with realism. Jim O is cooked…it’s not that he couldn’t win it’s that he won’t win with those positions… It’s there for the taking, if these R’s would stop listening to the same old consultants.
O Tempore, O Mores!
Maggie, can you meet me on top of The Empire State Building on Valentines Day?
Mr. X??????? You want me to get hit by a bus???????
I’m sobbing quietly now. (But I love that you reference old movies!)
I agree that the Republicans need some new tricks. You can’t stick with the tried and true when it doesn’t work.
Maggie, WHAT’S THIS ABOUT A BUS? Have you been drinking again? You’re sober enough to recognize that today’s Mass. R’s are stuck in the 1990 election…they think they won when Dukakis handed it to them on a silver platter…and then The Big Tent Bull____ began which threw the conservatives out and in came the neocons…Did everyone see “Ol Bill Weld ” sneaking out of the speaker’s office? He was trying to buy (steal?) the lottery etc. He might as well have had an eye patch and a pirate’s hat on…how low can we go…piratization lives! Scarlett, I mean Maggie, You must love “Sleepless in Seattle” well, don’t you?
I was referring to the original movie “An Affair to Remember”. He asks her to meet him at the top of the Empire State Building and gets hit by a bus on her way there. Not a big “Sleepless in Seattle” fan…..don’t know why.
I always liked Bill Weld, despite everything. I have one of those buttons “With Weld in ‘89″ I think it was ‘89. I’m so old, I’m not sure of the year. They gave them to people who were with Weld before he was cool, lol.
Keep working on the pirate thing so you are ready for “Talk like a Pirate Day” on September 19th.
You are completely correct………Dukakis handed it to us, we didn’t win it.