Betting On The Race: Political Gamblers Look At The Corner Office

Kimberly Atkins at the Boston Herald writes about the political junkies who are already beginning to make the gubernatorial race even more interesting–time to place your bets.

…some political junkies already have started putting money on the political horse race, starting friendly wager pools with friends, co-workers and other close political watchers. Based on these bets the early front-runner is Chris Gabrieli.

Some are just betting on who will win the primary. Others wager on what order the three candidates – Attorney General Tom Reilly, Deval Patrick and Gabrieli – will place in the September polls. And others are getting even more specific.

“Here are my numbers: 45 percent for Gabrieli, 33 percent for Reilly and 22 percent for Patrick,” said one operative, who bet $1 with a colleague on how the primary numbers will shake out.

According to anecdotal evidence gathered by the Herald, that order appears to be the choice of betting people.

Putting money on political races is nothing new. Several Web sites post the odds of candidates’ chances. None have started handicapping the Democratic primary just yet, and most wait until after the primary. So far most, including political analyst Larry J. Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” and the Cook Report’s race ratings, are looking at the chances a Democrat will take the Corner Office this year. (Both say right now which Dem it will be is a toss-up.)

But some pundits are weighing in, according to The Fix, the weekly political roundup on the Washington Post’s Web site. “Gabrieli is widely regarded by neutral party strategists as their best chance to defeat Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) in the fall.”

If the political gamblers have any clout, than Deval Patrick’s convention endorsement truly was a “kiss of death,” and Christy Mihos should turn off his webcam and get back behind the counter of his convenience stores. The other thing Christy should be thinking about, and possible kicking himself for, is the fact that Chris Gabrieli, who will be on the primary ballot only because of back room political dealings, is considered a favorite. Think about it Christy, if you didn’t lose your spine and just stayed with the Republican Party, you might actually have a fighting chance–but no, instead chose to be the candidate who hardly registers a blip on the radar. Just because Howie Carr didn’t include you in his Top 10 Dumbest Pols of 2006, doesn’t mean you don’t deserve an honorary mention.

If Chris Gabrieli does come out on top of the primary ballot, it will prove yet again the meaninglessness of these party conventions, and how out of touch the hard core politicos that attend these conventions are. Patrick’s convention endorsement was likely due to his being the most liberal of the three candidates, and the fact that he is not considered a favorite amongst those willing to put their money where their mouth is suggests that the voting public may not be as liberal as the convention delegates. Could this mean that come Election Day, voters will decide to hold on to some semblance of a two-party system for the Commonwealth, or elect for complete hubris? Gabrieli may represent a more moderate choice for the Democratic voters, but the only way to moderate state government is for two-party representation–and Patrick, Reilly and Gabrieli are not the answer.

Aaron Margolis is a life long resident of the Bay State, and works at an architectural firm north of Boston. Aaron has a Master of Architecture Degree from Boston Architectural College and is currently in the process of becoming of a Registered Architect.